Google officially announced the termination of the Android Open Source Project (AOSP)

Google officially announced the termination of the Android Open Source Project (AOSP)

[Breaking News] Google announces the end of AOSP maintenance, marking the beginning of a closed-source era for Android development

[In-depth Analysis] Why did Google "kill the donkey after grinding the mill"? Costs, control, and business calculations

1. The urgent need for cost reduction： The multi-branch code management and global collaboration of AOSP consume a large amount of Google's resources. According to insiders, the Android department initiated a "voluntary resignation plan" for employees at the beginning of 2025, and closing the source of AOSP can reduce code maintenance costs and labor expenses.
2. Strengthening ecological control rights： By closing the source, Google has brought Android development in-house and further tied it to the GMS (Google Mobile Services) licensing agreement. This move can force mobile phone manufacturers to rely more on Google services, thereby increasing advertising and app store revenue.
3. Pixel device-first strategy： After closing the source, Google can prioritize new features for its own Pixel series, weakening the system update speed of other manufacturers and indirectly increasing the market share of Pixel.

[Industry Shock] Developers are hit hardest, and the HarmonyOS ecosystem may be the biggest winner

1. Third-party ROM developers face a survival crisis.

• Individual developers and small teams will lose the ability to modify the underlying system, making it impossible for them to fix vulnerabilities or adapt to new hardware. Once popular projects like LineageOS and CopperheadOS may be phased out due to code stagnation.
• User Impact: Flashing enthusiasts will lose the option to customize their systems, and the cost of device lifecycle management will increase.

2. Small and medium-sized mobile phone manufacturers are caught in a dilemma.

• Although large manufacturers such as Xiaomi and OPPO are temporarily safe with their self-developed systems (such as Surge OS), small and medium-sized brands that rely on AOSP (such as OnePlus and realme) may face delayed system updates and be forced to turn to Google's "Pixelization" solution.
• The Rise of HarmonyOS: Huawei's HarmonyOS has significantly increased in value due to the AOSP closed-source incident. Analysts predict that by the end of 2025, HarmonyOS's global market share may exceed 12%, becoming an alternative option after Android becomes closed-source.

3. The collective condemnation of the open-source community

• The tech community criticized Google for violating the spirit of open source, while the FSF (Free Software Foundation) warned that this move would exacerbate Android fragmentation and lead to delayed security vulnerability fixes.
• Legal Dispute: Google still needs to comply with the GPL agreement and open-source the Linux kernel code, but other components (such as system services) may be completely closed source, leading to compatibility disputes.

[Future Vision] Android Ecosystem Fragmentation and Developers' "Breakthrough Path"

1. System ecology "semi-closure"

• Leading manufacturers are accelerating the iteration of their self-developed systems (such as Samsung's One UI 7.0 and ColorOS 15), creating a hybrid ecosystem of "Google standards + manufacturer customization," further squeezing the adaptation space for small and medium-sized developers.

2. Development costs are skyrocketing.

• Code closure forces developers to rely on vendor-provided SDKs and testing devices, potentially causing independent developers to exit the market due to insufficient resources, exacerbating industry monopolies.

3. The "Substitution Competition" between HarmonyOS and Android

• Huawei plans to open the HarmonyOS Next kernel code to the world in the third quarter of 2025, attracting developers to migrate. If successful, mobile operating systems may enter a "duel" era.

[How to Adapt] How can developers survive in the midst of drastic changes?

• Embrace the manufacturer ecosystem: Collaborate with leading brands to obtain priority development resources.
• Focus on alternative systems: explore opportunities in emerging platforms such as HarmonyOS and Ubuntu Touch;
• Focus on application layer innovation: reduce dependence on the system's underlying layers and shift towards cross-platform development frameworks (such as Flutter).

[Conclusion] A carefully calculated game